By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
November 24, 2006 -- For all of the dire warnings
and pre-election commotion about the impact of a Democratic majority in
Congress, the fact is that - now that it is upon us - it can do little or
nothing but harass the administration.
There is no real danger of any legislative action
emerging from this Congress. Yes, the president has a veto the Democrats cannot
override, but nothing will ever make it as far as the desk at 1600 Pennsylvania
Avenue. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Majority Leader Harry
Reid, D-Nev., are just spinning their wheels.
In the Senate, there is no such thing as a
majority. Ever since the elder Bush's administration, the filibuster has become
routine. No longer reserved for civil-rights issues or for egregious
legislation, it now is used to counter even motions for recess and adjournment.
Members of the Senate are no longer subjected to the indignity of standing on
their feet and reading a telephone book. Rather, the gentlemen's filibuster
applies.
The majority leader phones the minority leader and
asks if a filibuster is in effect. With his feet up on his desk, the Republican
replies that it is and the Democrat, despite his majority, does not even think
about bringing up his bill for consideration unless he has a good shot at the 60
votes required to shut off debate. In the Senate, 51 votes determine who gets
the corner office, but to pass legislation, one needs 60.
In the House of Representatives, with its 435
members, the Republican Party needed a simple majority - 218 - to rule. The
Democrats need considerably more. The normal rules of a mathematical majority do
not take into account the fractious nature of the Democratic Party.
Where the Republican majority best resembled the
Prussian Army - disciplined, unified and determined - the Democratic majority in
the upcoming Congress is disunited, dispersed and divided into myriad caucuses
and special interest groups. One could purchase the Republican majority
wholesale by making a deal with the speaker and the majority leader. But to get
the Democratic majority in line, one has buy it retail -- caucus by
caucus.
First, one has to go to check with the Black Caucus
-- hat in hand -- to see if one's bill has enough liberal giveaways to round up
its forty or so votes. Thence to the Hispanic Caucus for a similar screening.
Then, with one's legislation weighted down with liberal provisions added by
these two groups, one has to sell it to the Democratic Leadership Council
moderates and, even worse, to the Blue Dog Democrats -- the out and out
conservatives.
If you are fortunate enough to pass these
contradictory litmus tests, you then have to go to the environmentalists, the
labor people, and even the gays to see that your bill passes muster. Only then
can you begin to hope for House passage.
The result of this labyrinth is that the relatively
moderate bill you first sought to pass ends up like a Christmas tree, laden with
ornaments added to appease each of the caucuses. Unrecognizable in its final
form, it heads to House passage.
This road map will be familiar to all veterans of
the Clinton White House of 1993 and 1994. The most recent administration that
had to deal with a Democratic House, the shopping from caucus to caucus and the
festooning of moderate legislation with all manner of amendments will seem dejÃ
vu to all of the early Clintonites. When Clinton proposed an anti-crime bill
with a federal death penalty, he needed to add pork projects in the inner city
like midnight basketball to get it past the Democrats in the House.
Nancy Pelosi will face the same obstacle. By the
time her legislation emerges from the lower chamber, it will bear little
resemblance to what she had in mind, liberal as that might have been. As Clinton
said, after he watched the mangling of his legislative program by the various
caucuses in the House, "I didn't even recognize myself."
Once the highly amended liberal legislation emerges
from the House, it will make easy fodder for a Senate filibuster. So left
leaning that it stands no chance of attracting 60 votes, it will be
dead-on-arrival.
So forget the nightmares about an amended Patriot
Act or restrictions on wiretapping for homeland security. Don't worry about
House Ways and Means Chairman Charlie Rangel's, D-N.Y., ravings about the draft
or the rumors of a tax increase. It's not going to happen.
What is the Democratic majority good for? One thing
and one thing only - to give their party control of the committees and the
subpoena power that goes with it. The two House Democratic majority can only
make noise and make trouble. It can't pass legislation.
Eileen McGann co-authored this column.